De minimis for US customers

[cranewarrior]

My prediction is that we'll soon be seeing Xi Jinping traveling to the White House. He will come to us, and that has a symbolic power that will be obvious to everyone.

I've read that America consumes 80% of what it produces. China cannot consume 80% of what it produces. And frankly, there are a lot of bizarre, alarming rumors and news coming out of China lately. Speculation about their actual population size. Unemployment numbers. Sketchy banking stability. And it doesn't stop there.

The de minimis stuff on China won't last long. That's my prediction. But I also think that lifting won't stop China's decline.

I have some China-based friends in manufacturing, mostly consumer electronics. They have idled their workers for months now and may exit business entirely. Not enough Western buyers for at least a year now. No doubt this trade war will make it worse for them.

Curious if China can shift their food purchases without impact. They don't produce enough food by themselves to feed their people without imports from Canada and the USA.

 

[AshleyC]

I have some China-based friends in manufacturing, mostly consumer electronics. They have idled their workers for months now and may exit business entirely. Not enough Western buyers for at least a year now. No doubt this trade war will make it worse for them.

Curious if China can shift their food purchases without impact. They don't produce enough food by themselves to feed their people without imports from Canada and the USA.

No sooner did I post than I saw that China has announced tariffs on American goods.

Their first response is defiance, it seems. But people you know say American orders have already been down for months, without tariffs.

I think my earlier predictions are still valid. I don't think the CCP wants to contemplate this many jobless people.

 

[Odinarcade00]

the stock market that holds up our economy is tumbling at an incredible rate. Good luck to everyone.

 

[Mr. Shavington]

No sooner did I post than I saw that China has announced tariffs on American goods.

Their first response is defiance, it seems. But people you know say American orders have already been down for months, without tariffs.

I think my earlier predictions are still valid. I don't think the CCP wants to contemplate this many jobless people.

We will see what happens, of course, but while China has clearly built an enormous supply economy, don’t underestimate how strong their domestic economy is or how strongly the Chinese government will focus on what is to their long-term advantage. They do have some big challenges currently - particularly in the real estate market - but I seriously doubt that Chinese government policy will deviate from their objectives.

I have spent a lot of my career working in Asia and I’ve seen great, rapid change in China particularly. If you go to China you’d be amazed how advanced their commerce is, for example. They are decades ahead of the west in digital connectivity, marketing, and e-transaction systems. You don’t know about these because it’s purely for the domestic market and in Chinese language only. The Chinese economy is so big that they do not think about expanding these systems internationally. And if you visit Shanghai and stay in a good business hotel you would be blown away at how much more of a luxury experience it is compared to equivalent hotels from the same chains in America, because of what the Chinese consumer has come to expect.

And we’ve all seen for at least a couple of decades how the western high-end consumer businesses changed all their global product lines to fit what Chinese consumers wanted, so important was access to Chinese consumers for them. Cars, luxury designer clothing brands, etc. Bentley sold more cars in the city of Beijing alone than in the whole of Europe, such has been the demand for high-end luxury goods in China. But the goal for China was always to develop the businesses within China to replace these top western brands.

Chinese policy has been to monopolise the global supply of rare earth metals and develop high-end technology industries. They’ve succeeded amazingly so far. Yes, there is now a surplus of technology businesses and graduates who cannot find work, but that shows how much investment went into these technologies. In such a small time Chinese electric vehicle makers have gone from nothing to being the world leaders. There are many such companies, all competing to take the lead, but BYD is now the world’s largest EV producer, and has developed battery technology that is a generation ahead of Tesla. And other Chinese EV manufacturers are leading the world in automated driving technology and are far ahead of Tesla now, who seem to be stuck. This is all driven by government policy, and the decision to dominate future industries, not to be forever a supplier of cheap running shoes. This policy is not going to change, no matter what internal and external pressures exist in the short term.

China just operates differently from the west. Always long-term and single-minded. They don’t have to please voters or stock markets - most of the economy is state controlled and voters have little power. And culturally they will always stand their ground and won’t lose face. Their economy has advanced extremely rapidly and the Chinese people know this. There has been high graduate unemployment for a while now and the Chinese government hasn’t changed direction one bit.

Don’t forget too that 74% of consumer spending is outside the US and American tariffs have no effect on this. In fact reciprocal tariffs against American-made goods is going to create a lot of new trade opportunities for China.

I can’t predict the future but I do think you’re misunderstanding China’s situation if you believe they will make any concessions that weaken their economic potential. That’s my perspective from my experience working in South East Asia during the last few decades.

 

[Legion]

China has the workforce to enforce their tariffs on lower cost items.

I don’t know how America is going to deal with enforcing them on the literally millions of items sold by Temu, Alibaba, Shein, etc every day.

 

[AshleyC]

Sitting on the porch, cigar in hand, wondering if the Reds v. Brewers game will be rain canceled.

Then it occurred to me the blades that make owning and operating any Injector SE are Chinese. And I only have a partial magazine of those remaining. AND those suckers were already not cheap.

Not a happy camper. Why can't the American manufacturer improve the sharpness just a skosh?

 

[jesseix]

We will see what happens, of course, but while China has clearly built an enormous supply economy, don’t underestimate how strong their domestic economy is or how strongly the Chinese government will focus on what is to their long-term advantage. They do have some big challenges currently - particularly in the real estate market - but I seriously doubt that Chinese government policy will deviate from their objectives.

I have spent a lot of my career working in Asia and I’ve seen great, rapid change in China particularly. If you go to China you’d be amazed how advanced their commerce is, for example. They are decades ahead of the west in digital connectivity, marketing, and e-transaction systems. You don’t know about these because it’s purely for the domestic market and in Chinese language only. The Chinese economy is so big that they do not think about expanding these systems internationally. And if you visit Shanghai and stay in a good business hotel you would be blown away at how much more of a luxury experience it is compared to equivalent hotels from the same chains in America, because of what the Chinese consumer has come to expect.

And we’ve all seen for at least a couple of decades how the western high-end consumer businesses changed all their global product lines to fit what Chinese consumers wanted, so important was access to Chinese consumers for them. Cars, luxury designer clothing brands, etc. Bentley sold more cars in the city of Beijing alone than in the whole of Europe, such has been the demand for high-end luxury goods in China. But the goal for China was always to develop the businesses within China to replace these top western brands.

Chinese policy has been to monopolise the global supply of rare earth metals and develop high-end technology industries. They’ve succeeded amazingly so far. Yes, there is now a surplus of technology businesses and graduates who cannot find work, but that shows how much investment went into these technologies. In such a small time Chinese electric vehicle makers have gone from nothing to being the world leaders. There are many such companies, all competing to take the lead, but BYD is now the world’s largest EV producer, and has developed battery technology that is a generation ahead of Tesla. And other Chinese EV manufacturers are leading the world in automated driving technology and are far ahead of Tesla now, who seem to be stuck. This is all driven by government policy, and the decision to dominate future industries, not to be forever a supplier of cheap running shoes. This policy is not going to change, no matter what internal and external pressures exist in the short term.

China just operates differently from the west. Always long-term and single-minded. They don’t have to please voters or stock markets - most of the economy is state controlled and voters have little power. And culturally they will always stand their ground and won’t lose face. Their economy has advanced extremely rapidly and the Chinese people know this. There has been high graduate unemployment for a while now and the Chinese government hasn’t changed direction one bit.

Don’t forget too that 74% of consumer spending is outside the US and American tariffs have no effect on this. In fact reciprocal tariffs against American-made goods is going to create a lot of new trade opportunities for China.

I can’t predict the future but I do think you’re misunderstanding China’s situation if you believe they will make any concessions that weaken their economic potential. That’s my perspective from my experience working in South East Asia during the last few decades.

I enjoyed this read, thank you for the well-thought out and well-written analysis

 

[purecro]

Reading the thread, not all of it yet as there is some good information in here so I will read it all, so there is no confusion, right now as of May 2 the China "de minimis" exception will end but there is no talk of the EU. I know the EU has a 20% tariff but will the "de minimis" exception still be in effect of the EU until they actually get rid of it like with China. I don't order from China except my one Oumo St 1 brush but I got that thru Fedex and before any of this took place.

Every article I read talks about China but not the EU. I ask as well, some purchases I do want to make from the EU and want to make sure I know before I do if there if the "de minimis" rule is in affect still after May 2 ie has there been a date declared when the "de minimis" rule from the EU will end?

 

[sidpost]

And frankly, there are a lot of bizarre, alarming rumors and news coming out of China lately. Speculation about their actual population size. Unemployment numbers. Sketchy banking stability. And it doesn't stop there.

Chinese reporting of economic and demographic data has forever been a series of distortions and outright lies in many cases.

What the true state of their economy is, is actually a mystery, but looking at empty buildings, partially built apartments, and empty cities, it certainly looks like tough times ahead for China overall. This comes into contrast with Yaqi and DSC (probably others too) who seem to do well making shave products that target consumers in the West. India produced products generally seem to get very little traction in the USA and, it looks like a similar state generally for the EU region as well.

This is contrasted in China by a huge central government and a serious military build-up along with indentured servitude with unreasonable contracts in Africa, Asia, the Pacific Rim, and South America.

As I have stated elsewhere on this site, I am concerned about the small, basically family run shops, that are severely impacted by the recent tariffs. And, this applies to Europe and Canada regarding shave products as well. While our favorite shave supplies largely come from larger commercial concerns, other hobbies, in my case flashlights, largely come from small independent shops that make them in China. A 53% tariff from their primary market will hit them severely hard. 20% from the EU will hit small boutique producers in the shaving industry pretty darn hard as well. A 20% tariff on FaTip razor at CONUS shops like the Italian Barber will largely go unnoticed but, it remains to be seen what the ~$300 razor producers see in terms of sales into the USA market going forward from today.

The de minimis stuff on China won't last long. That's my prediction. But I also think that lifting won't stop China's decline.

I disagree with that statement. Trump specifically attacked the cheap fast fashion stuff so, even a $200 or $100 De Minimus restoration won't stop that.

That means my ~$30 Ti DE razor handles will now cost ~$45. The question becomes whether that will open up opportunities for USA-based producers to make a competing product that is attractive to me. However, where will they get the Titanium for the lathes and CNC mills to make them?

I saw some reporting on the AP news site on the tariffs suggesting the De Minimus ending was only for China so, perhaps a Canadian Guerilla razor and a tub of EU shaving soap won't get taxed excessively.

 

[sidpost]

We will see what happens, of course, but while China has clearly built an enormous supply economy, don’t underestimate how strong their domestic economy is or how strongly the Chinese government will focus on what is to their long-term advantage. They do have some big challenges currently - particularly in the real estate market - but I seriously doubt that Chinese government policy will deviate from their objectives.

I have spent a lot of my career working in Asia and I’ve seen great, rapid change in China particularly. If you go to China you’d be amazed how advanced their commerce is, for example. They are decades ahead of the west in digital connectivity, marketing, and e-transaction systems. You don’t know about these because it’s purely for the domestic market and in Chinese language only. The Chinese economy is so big that they do not think about expanding these systems internationally. And if you visit Shanghai and stay in a good business hotel you would be blown away at how much more of a luxury experience it is compared to equivalent hotels from the same chains in America, because of what the Chinese consumer has come to expect.

And we’ve all seen for at least a couple of decades how the western high-end consumer businesses changed all their global product lines to fit what Chinese consumers wanted, so important was access to Chinese consumers for them. Cars, luxury designer clothing brands, etc. Bentley sold more cars in the city of Beijing alone than in the whole of Europe, such has been the demand for high-end luxury goods in China. But the goal for China was always to develop the businesses within China to replace these top western brands.

Chinese policy has been to monopolise the global supply of rare earth metals and develop high-end technology industries. They’ve succeeded amazingly so far. Yes, there is now a surplus of technology businesses and graduates who cannot find work, but that shows how much investment went into these technologies. In such a small time Chinese electric vehicle makers have gone from nothing to being the world leaders. There are many such companies, all competing to take the lead, but BYD is now the world’s largest EV producer, and has developed battery technology that is a generation ahead of Tesla. And other Chinese EV manufacturers are leading the world in automated driving technology and are far ahead of Tesla now, who seem to be stuck. This is all driven by government policy, and the decision to dominate future industries, not to be forever a supplier of cheap running shoes. This policy is not going to change, no matter what internal and external pressures exist in the short term.

China just operates differently from the west. Always long-term and single-minded. They don’t have to please voters or stock markets - most of the economy is state controlled and voters have little power. And culturally they will always stand their ground and won’t lose face. Their economy has advanced extremely rapidly and the Chinese people know this. There has been high graduate unemployment for a while now and the Chinese government hasn’t changed direction one bit.

Don’t forget too that 74% of consumer spending is outside the US and American tariffs have no effect on this. In fact reciprocal tariffs against American-made goods is going to create a lot of new trade opportunities for China.

I can’t predict the future but I do think you’re misunderstanding China’s situation if you believe they will make any concessions that weaken their economic potential. That’s my perspective from my experience working in South East Asia during the last few decades.

When you don't have to cater to voters and special interest groups, you can do things like China has done in the past which killed millions of people to advance the national goals.

And as you noted, there is the whole culture thing to consider as well. "Social Scoring" for homes, jobs, etc. is an extremely powerful tool in a closed society whether China or North Korea.

 

[sidpost]

China has the workforce to enforce their tariffs on lower cost items.

I don’t know how America is going to deal with enforcing them on the literally millions of items sold by Temu, Alibaba, Shein, etc every day.

I believe the "goal" is to stop me from buying more flashlights and razors from China and to make me look domestically for a new source.

 

[sidpost]

Reading the thread, not all of it yet as there is some good information in here so I will read it all, so there is no confusion, right now as of May 2 the China "de minimis" exception will end but there is no talk of the EU. I know the EU has a 20% tariff but will the "de minimis" exception still be in effect of the EU until they actually get rid of it like with China. I don't order from China except my one Oumo St 1 brush but I got that thru Fedex and before any of this took place.

Every article I read talks about China but not the EU. I ask as well, some purchases I do want to make from the EU and want to make sure I know before I do if there if the "de minimis" rule is in affect still after May 2 ie has there been a date declared when the "de minimis" rule from the EU will end?

Lots of confusion on this generally regarding the EU. I am considering some purchases before May 2nd from Connaught Shaving and possibly a few others to hit US Customs before then.

 

[helicopter]

If ending de minimus is China only, then AliX and Temu can just add tariff collections at checkout and basically business as usual except for the price hike. If AliX and Temu rely on USPS to handle it, they will essentially lose the US customer base.

Some vendors can just move to US distribution as brands like Wen have or they lose the business to Western marketing companies like American Blades and Vikings.

 

[spacemonkey42]

I am assuming that removing the de minimus is across the board. When reporting about the de minimus exception, the examples are often Chinese orders, I have not read that it will be only applied to imports from specific countries. We shall see. This chaos is not good for consumer/citizen confidence.

 

[purecro]

Lots of confusion on this generally regarding the EU. I am considering some purchases before May 2nd from Connaught Shaving and possibly a few others to hit US Customs before then.

I read alot of the thread and am considering the same. My biggest purchases though won't be till after May or during May is the thing so I don't know like when Lambda comes out with their next batches of razors as I am considering getting another one from them how that will go as the "di minimus" rule applying to who and what. My purchaes would be from the EU so.

It does make me rethink because I honestly don't know how it will be applied and I mentioned this myself, for me, they would be a bit of luxury buys even without all this going on right now.

I just don't see where the ability to tariff and how quickly it will get in place effectively. We are just not setup for that over here, whether thru USPS, FedEx, DHL, UPS, etc.

I can say this that sending items to Canada and I have multiple times, regardless of pricing, person, who and whatever the item and whatever the reason it is, they tariff everything ie they have a system in place while we don't.

 

[sidpost]

With the $800 De Minimum exemption, most people in the USA never had to worry about Customs import duties.

What system the USPS sets up to track and/or collect tariffs is a mystery at this point.

 

[CapnPanther]

With the $800 De Minimum exemption, most people in the USA never had to worry about Customs import duties.

What system the USPS sets up to track and/or collect tariffs is a mystery at this point.

Without people knowing what duties and fees are before ordering I think that every carrier, not just the USPS, may have more than a trivial mess on its hands.

 

[jesseix]

Without people knowing what duties and fees are before ordering I think that every carrier, not just the USPS, may have more than a trivial mess on its hands.

Maybe that’s the whole idea: flood the population with a bunch of unknowns and make the idea of that purchase being too scary or risky to want to deal with.

 

[sidpost]

Maybe that’s the whole idea: flood the population with a bunch of unknowns and make the idea of that purchase being too scary or risky to want to deal with.

I'm there right now. I have seen various posts on news media saying that a flat fee of $25 or $50 will be levied against packages arriving on May 2nd or later so, will I order $20 of stuff and risk it? Likely not. I was considering some more Nacet blades but, the vast majority ship out of India or Jordan and delivery is anywhere between 3 and 9 weeks. EU options would arrive much faster but, it will be cheaper to buy them in the future with a tariff than to buy today out of the EU pre-tariff.